Structural breaks and GARCH models of exchange rate volatility: Re‐examination and extension

B-Tier
Journal: Journal of Applied Econometrics
Year: 2024
Volume: 39
Issue: 7
Pages: 1403-1407

Authors (4)

Akram Shavkatovich Hasanov (not in RePEc) Robert Brooks (Monash University) Sirojiddin Abrorov (not in RePEc) Aktam Usmanovich Burkhanov (not in RePEc)

Score contribution per author:

0.503 = (α=2.01 / 4 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We examine the empirical significance of structural changes concerning generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models of exchange rate volatility using out‐of‐sample tests by replicating and carrying out robustness checks on the volatility forecasting study by Rapach and Strauss (Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2008; 23, 65–90). We employ the same econometric models but incorporate recent US dollar daily exchange rates data while also using different software, a relatively recent forecast accuracy test and loss metrics. Our objective is to attain scientific replication in a broad sense. Our analysis verifies and broadly aligns with the results obtained in the original study. In particular, we find strong evidence that the models incorporating structural breaks demonstrate superior performance across all loss functions and forecast horizons compared with those models that ignore instabilities.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:wly:japmet:v:39:y:2024:i:7:p:1403-1407
Journal Field
Econometrics
Author Count
4
Added to Database
2026-01-24