Wholesale price prediction: The role of information and transparency

B-Tier
Journal: Energy Policy
Year: 2026
Volume: 209
Issue: PA

Score contribution per author:

0.670 = (α=2.01 / 3 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

The extent of real-time information disclosure in electricity markets has been a longstanding debate. Regulators have the difficult task of striking a careful balance between transparency to improve market outcomes under uncertainty while limiting the potential for coordinated action. We consider the case of Alberta’s electricity market where, until 2017, firms observed anonymized price-quantity offers in the wholesale market in near-real-time. We empirically evaluate the role that this information played in improving firms’ abilities to forecast wholesale prices, a key argument raised by stakeholders for this information to be published. While we find that this information improved firms’ abilities to forecast wholesale prices under certain market conditions, we present evidence to suggest that the economic significance of this improvement is minimal. We point to other types of near-real-time information that could help improve expectations of future market outcomes and provide suggestions on information disclosure policies that aim to strike a balance in motivating efficient outcomes, while reducing the risk of coordination.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:enepol:v:209:y:2026:i:pa:s0301421525004823
Journal Field
Energy
Author Count
3
Added to Database
2026-01-24