Domestic or global imbalances? Rising income risk and the fall in the US current account

A-Tier
Journal: Journal of Monetary Economics
Year: 2014
Volume: 64
Issue: C
Pages: 47-67

Score contribution per author:

4.022 = (α=2.01 / 1 authors) × 2.0x A-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

When default leads to exclusion from financial markets, the implied loss of consumption smoothing opportunities is more costly when income volatility is high. A rise in income risk thus makes default less attractive, allowing creditors to relax borrowing limits. I show how, in an open economy, this endogenous financial deepening may reduce aggregate foreign assets in response to a rise in individual income risk, against the precautionary savings intuition. Conditions for this depend on whether default constrains complete or uncontingent contracts. The post-1980 rise in US household income risk strongly reduces foreign assets when domestic markets are complete or world interest rates low.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:moneco:v:64:y:2014:i:c:p:47-67
Journal Field
Macro
Author Count
1
Added to Database
2026-01-25