Proxy Vector Autoregressions in a Data-rich Environment

B-Tier
Journal: Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
Year: 2021
Volume: 123
Issue: C

Score contribution per author:

2.011 = (α=2.01 / 1 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

I propose a Bayesian approach to identify vector autoregressive (VAR) models via proxies in a data-rich environment. The setup augments a small-scale VAR model with latent factors. It allows to trace out the responses of disaggregated series in a unified model while controlling for broad economic conditions. The posterior sampler accounts for the estimation uncertainty in these latent factors as well as the measurement precision of the proxy. In a first application to monetary policy, I extract factors from a wide range of real and financial series and find that the effects of monetary policy shocks vary along the yield curve. In a second application to oil market shocks I add disaggregated US series to a standard model of the global oil market. I find that negative news about future oil supply have adverse effects on the US economy.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:dyncon:v:123:y:2021:i:c:s0165188920302141
Journal Field
Macro
Author Count
1
Added to Database
2026-01-25