Information and communication technologies and medium-run fluctuations

Abstract

This paper explores the possibility that productivity improvements in information and communication technologies (ICT) are a source of medium-run fluctuations in total factor productivity (TFP) and economic activity. We document in a structural VAR setting that supply shocks in the ICT sector are followed by hump-shaped and long-lasting increases in TFP. Following the ICT literature, we use a two-sector model to suggest a mechanism behind the hump-shaped TFP response: that ICT is a general-purpose technology (GPT). Using impulse-response matching, we show that a model with a spillover from ICT capital is able to match the hump-shaped TFP response, hinting at the importance of the diffusion of ICT.