Monetary Policy, Judgment, and Near-Rational Exuberance

S-Tier
Journal: American Economic Review
Year: 2008
Volume: 98
Issue: 3
Pages: 1163-77

Score contribution per author:

2.681 = (α=2.01 / 3 authors) × 4.0x S-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We study how the use of judgment or "add-factors" in macroeconomic forecasting may disturb the set of equilibrium outcomes when agents learn using recursive methods. We examine the possibility of a new phenomenon, which we call exuberance equilibria, in the New Keynesian monetary policy framework. Inclusion of judgment in forecasts can lead to self-fulfilling fluctuations in a subset of the determinacy region. We study how policymakers can minimize the risk of exuberance equilibria.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:aea:aecrev:v:98:y:2008:i:3:p:1163-77
Journal Field
General
Author Count
3
Added to Database
2026-01-25