Out of sample forecasts of quadratic variation

A-Tier
Journal: Journal of Econometrics
Year: 2008
Volume: 147
Issue: 1
Pages: 17-33

Authors (2)

Aït-Sahalia, Yacine (Princeton University) Mancini, Loriano (not in RePEc)

Score contribution per author:

2.011 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 2.0x A-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We compare the forecasts of Quadratic Variation given by the Realized Volatility (RV) and the Two Scales Realized Volatility (TSRV) computed from high frequency data in the presence of market microstructure noise, under several different dynamics for the volatility process and assumptions on the noise. We show that TSRV largely outperforms RV, whether looking at bias, variance, RMSE or out-of-sample forecasting ability. An empirical application to all DJIA stocks confirms the simulation results.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:econom:v:147:y:2008:i:1:p:17-33
Journal Field
Econometrics
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-24