Can Managers Forecast Aggregate Market Returns?

A-Tier
Journal: Journal of Finance
Year: 2005
Volume: 60
Issue: 2
Pages: 963-986

Authors (3)

ALEXANDER W. BUTLER (Rice University) GUSTAVO GRULLON (not in RePEc) JAMES P. WESTON (not in RePEc)

Score contribution per author:

1.341 = (α=2.01 / 3 authors) × 2.0x A-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

Previous studies have found that the proportion of equity in total new debt and equity issues is negatively correlated with future equity market returns. Researchers have interpreted this finding as evidence that corporate managers are able to predict the systematic component of their stock returns and to issue equity when the market is overvalued. In this article we show that the predictive power of the share of equity in total new issues stems from pseudo‐market timing and not from any abnormal ability of managers to time the equity markets.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:bla:jfinan:v:60:y:2005:i:2:p:963-986
Journal Field
Finance
Author Count
3
Added to Database
2026-01-25