Taylor rule estimation by OLS

A-Tier
Journal: Journal of Monetary Economics
Year: 2021
Volume: 124
Issue: C
Pages: 140-154

Score contribution per author:

1.341 = (α=2.01 / 3 authors) × 2.0x A-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We argue for Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimation of Taylor rules despite an endogeneity bias. To that end, we show analytically in the three-equation New Keynesian model that the OLS bias is proportional to the fraction of the variance of regressors due to monetary shocks. Using simulations, we show this relationship also holds in a quantitative model of the U.S. economy. Since monetary shocks explain only a small fraction of the variance of typical Taylor rule regressors, the bias tends to be small. Estimating a standard Taylor rule using U.S. data, we find quite similar OLS and Instrumental Variables estimates.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:moneco:v:124:y:2021:i:c:p:140-154
Journal Field
Macro
Author Count
3
Added to Database
2026-01-25