Back to the present: Learning about the euro area through a now-casting model

B-Tier
Journal: International Journal of Forecasting
Year: 2024
Volume: 40
Issue: 2
Pages: 661-686

Score contribution per author:

0.503 = (α=2.01 / 4 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We build a multi-country model for simultaneously nowcasting economic conditions in the euro area and its three largest member countries—Germany, France, and Italy. The model formalizes how market participants and policymakers monitor in real time both euro-area and country-specific market-moving indicators. The out-of-sample evaluation corroborates the usefulness of a multi-country approach to monitor the euro area. Indeed, the model provides accurate real-time predictions of economic conditions both on average and in the past three recessions, while finding that soft data are timely and intrinsically informative.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:intfor:v:40:y:2024:i:2:p:661-686
Journal Field
Econometrics
Author Count
4
Added to Database
2026-01-25