On the role of dependence in sticky price and sticky information Phillips curve: Modelling and forecasting

C-Tier
Journal: Economic Modeling
Year: 2021
Volume: 105
Issue: C

Authors (3)

Casarin, Roberto (Università Ca' Foscari Venezia) Costantini, Mauro (not in RePEc) Paradiso, Antonio (not in RePEc)

Score contribution per author:

0.335 = (α=2.01 / 3 authors) × 0.5x C-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

Understanding the role of sticky price and sticky information for inflation dynamics is a key issue in economics. The literature has treated the two forms of stickiness as independent. This paper proposes a new dual stickiness Phillips curve based on dependence among the events of setting prices and updating information. Using US data over the period 1947Q1–2020Q1, the new model is scrutinized against a dual stickiness model without dependence, a pure sticky price model, and a pure sticky information model, through in- and out-of-sample analyses. The results show: (i) the new model outperforms the model without dependence in-sample; (ii) the dual stickiness models perform similarly out-of-sample; and (iii) the pure sticky models yield the worst forecasts. The results have some implications for policy makers and practitioners. A policy maker may consider the new model given its performance in- and out-of-sample, while a practitioner may prefer the model without dependence, given its lesser complexity and its competitive forecasting performance.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:ecmode:v:105:y:2021:i:c:s0264999321002339
Journal Field
General
Author Count
3
Added to Database
2026-01-25