Nowcasting industrial production using linear and non-linear models of electricity demand

A-Tier
Journal: Energy Economics
Year: 2023
Volume: 126
Issue: C

Authors (5)

Galdi, Giulio (European Research Institute on...) Casarin, Roberto (Università Ca' Foscari Venezia) Ferrari, Davide (not in RePEc) Fezzi, Carlo (not in RePEc) Ravazzolo, Francesco (not in RePEc)

Score contribution per author:

0.804 = (α=2.01 / 5 authors) × 2.0x A-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

This article proposes different modelling approaches which exploit electricity market data to nowcast industrial production. Our models include linear, mixed-data sampling (MIDAS), Markov-Switching (MS) and MS-MIDAS regressions. Comparisons against autoregressive approaches and other commonly used macroeconomic predictors show that electricity market data combined with an MS model significantly improve nowcasting performance, especially during turbulent economic states, such as those generated by the recent COVID-19 pandemic. The most promising results are provided by an MS model which identifies two volatility regimes. These results confirm that electricity market data provide timely and easy-to-access information for nowcasting macroeconomic variables, especially when it is most valuable, i.e. during times of crisis and uncertainty.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:eneeco:v:126:y:2023:i:c:s0140988323005042
Journal Field
Energy
Author Count
5
Added to Database
2026-01-25