On the predictability of stock prices: A case for high and low prices

B-Tier
Journal: Journal of Banking & Finance
Year: 2013
Volume: 37
Issue: 12
Pages: 5132-5146

Score contribution per author:

0.670 = (α=2.01 / 3 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

This paper contributes to technical analysis (TA) literature by showing that the high and low prices of equity shares are largely predictable only on the basis of their past realizations. Moreover, using their forecasts as entry/exit signals can improve common TA trading strategies applied on US equity prices. We propose modeling high and low prices using a simple implementation of a fractional vector autoregressive model with error correction (FVECM). This model captures two fundamental patterns of high and low prices: their cointegrating relationship and the long-memory of their difference (i.e., the range), which is a measure of volatility.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:jbfina:v:37:y:2013:i:12:p:5132-5146
Journal Field
Finance
Author Count
3
Added to Database
2026-01-25