Trading Volume and Serial Correlation in Stock Returns

S-Tier
Journal: Quarterly Journal of Economics
Year: 1993
Volume: 108
Issue: 4
Pages: 905-939

Score contribution per author:

2.681 = (α=2.01 / 3 authors) × 4.0x S-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between aggregate stock market trading volume and the serial correlation of daily stock returns. For both stock indexes and individual large stocks, the first-order daily return autocorrelation tends to decline with volume. The paper explains this phenomenon using a model in which risk-averse "market makers" accommodate buying or selling pressure from "liquidity" or "noninformational" traders. Changing expected stock returns reward market makers for playing this role. The model implies that a stock price decline on a high-volume day is more likely than a stock price decline on a low-volume day to be associated with an increase in the expected stock return.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:oup:qjecon:v:108:y:1993:i:4:p:905-939.
Journal Field
General
Author Count
3
Added to Database
2026-01-25