Public Information and Inflation Expectations: Microeconometric Evidence from a Natural Experiment

A-Tier
Journal: Review of Economics and Statistics
Year: 2012
Volume: 94
Issue: 4
Pages: 860-877

Authors (2)

Paul E. Carrillo (not in RePEc) M. Shahe Emran (George Washington University)

Score contribution per author:

2.011 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 2.0x A-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

Governments provide public information to reduce information imperfections. Do households rely on public signals to inform themselves about market conditions? To identify the importance of public information in households' price expectations, we take advantage of a unique natural experiment in Ecuador where the published inflation rate had been different from the correct rate over a period of fourteen months due to a software error. We find that the public signal about prices plays an important role in households' price expectations, and the change in price expectations affects their savings choices. The effect is stronger for better-educated and older people. © 2012 The President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:tpr:restat:v:94:y:2012:i:4:p:860-877
Journal Field
General
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-25