Detecting big structural breaks in large factor models

A-Tier
Journal: Journal of Econometrics
Year: 2014
Volume: 180
Issue: 1
Pages: 30-48

Authors (3)

Chen, Liang (not in RePEc) Dolado, Juan J. (not in RePEc) Gonzalo, Jesús (Universidad Carlos III de Madr...)

Score contribution per author:

1.341 = (α=2.01 / 3 authors) × 2.0x A-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

Time invariance of factor loadings is a standard assumption in the analysis of large factor models. Yet, this assumption may be restrictive unless parameter shifts are mild (i.e., local to zero). In this paper we develop a new testing procedure to detect big breaks in these loadings at either known or unknown dates. It relies upon testing for parameter breaks in a regression of one of the factors estimated by Principal Components analysis on the remaining estimated factors, where the number of factors is chosen according to Bai and Ng’s (2002) information criteria. The test fares well in terms of power relative to other recently proposed tests on this issue, and can be easily implemented to avoid forecasting failures in standard factor-augmented (FAR, FAVAR) models where the number of factors is a priori imposed on the basis of theoretical considerations.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:econom:v:180:y:2014:i:1:p:30-48
Journal Field
Econometrics
Author Count
3
Added to Database
2026-01-25