Long range dependence in an emerging stock market’s sectors: volatility modelling and VaR forecasting

C-Tier
Journal: Applied Economics
Year: 2018
Volume: 50
Issue: 23
Pages: 2569-2599

Authors (3)

Bana Abuzayed (not in RePEc) Nedal Al-Fayoumi (not in RePEc) Lanouar Charfeddine (University of Qatar)

Score contribution per author:

0.336 = (α=2.02 / 3 authors) × 0.5x C-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

This study evaluates the sector risk of the Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE), a recently upgraded emerging stock market, using value-at-risk models for the 7 January 2007–18 October 2015 period. After providing evidence for true long memory in volatility using the log-likelihood profile test of Qu and splitting the sample and dth differentiation tests of Shimotsu, we compare the FIGARCH, HYGARCH and FIAPARCH models under normal, Student-t and skewed-t innovation distributions based on in and out-of-sample VaR forecasts. The empirical results show that the skewed Student-t FIGARCH model generates the most accurate prediction of one-day-VaR forecasts. The policy implications for portfolio managers are also discussed.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:taf:applec:v:50:y:2018:i:23:p:2569-2599
Journal Field
General
Author Count
3
Added to Database
2026-01-25