Macroeconomic-Driven Prepayment Risk and the Valuation of Mortgage-Backed Securities

A-Tier
Journal: The Review of Financial Studies
Year: 2018
Volume: 31
Issue: 3
Pages: 1132-1183

Authors (3)

Mikhail Chernov (University of California-Los A...) Brett R. Dunn (not in RePEc) Francis A. Longstaff (not in RePEc)

Score contribution per author:

1.345 = (α=2.02 / 3 authors) × 2.0x A-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We develop a three-factor no-arbitrage model for valuing mortgage-backed securities in which we solve for the implied prepayment function from the cross-section of market prices. This model closely fits the cross-section of mortgage-backed security prices without needing to specify an econometric prepayment model. We find that implied prepayments are generally higher than actual prepayments, providing direct evidence of significant macroeconomic-driven prepayment risk premiums in mortgage-backed security prices. We also find evidence that mortgage-backed security prices were significantly affected by Fannie Mae credit risk and the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing programs. Received May 10, 2016; editorial decision September 22, 2017 by Editor Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:oup:rfinst:v:31:y:2018:i:3:p:1132-1183
Journal Field
Finance
Author Count
3
Added to Database
2026-01-25