Comparisons of robust tests for shifts in trend with an application to trend deviations of real exchange rates in the long run

C-Tier
Journal: Applied Economics
Year: 2013
Volume: 45
Issue: 24
Pages: 3512-3528

Authors (2)

Sungju Chun (not in RePEc) Pierre Perron (Boston University)

Score contribution per author:

0.503 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 0.5x C-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We study the finite sample properties of tests for structural changes in the trend function of a time series that do not require knowledge of the degree of persistence in the noise component. The tests of interest are the quasi-Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS) procedure by Perron and Yabu (2009b) and the weighted average of the regression <italic>t</italic>-statistics by Harvey <italic>et al</italic>. (2009), both of which have the same limit distribution whether the noise component is stationary or has a unit-root. We analyse the finite sample size and power properties of these tests under a variety of Data-Generating Processes (DGPs). The results show that the Perron--Yabu test has greater power overall. With respect to the size, the Harvey--Leybourne--Taylor test exhibits larger size distortions unless a moving-average component is present. Using the Perron and Yabu procedure to test for structural changes in the trend function of long-run real exchange rates with respect to the US dollar indicates that for 17 out of 19 countries, the series have experienced a shift in trend since the late nineteenth century.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:taf:applec:v:45:y:2013:i:24:p:3512-3528
Journal Field
General
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-25