Score contribution per author:
α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count
The modified harmonic mean is widely used for estimating the marginal likelihood. We investigate the empirical performance of two versions of this estimator: one based on the observed-data likelihood and the other on the complete-data likelihood. Through an empirical example using US and UK inflation, we show that the version based on the complete-data likelihood has a substantial bias and tends to select the wrong model, whereas the version based on the observed-data likelihood works well.