Moving average stochastic volatility models with application to inflation forecast

A-Tier
Journal: Journal of Econometrics
Year: 2013
Volume: 176
Issue: 2
Pages: 162-172

Score contribution per author:

4.036 = (α=2.02 / 1 authors) × 2.0x A-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We introduce a new class of models that has both stochastic volatility and moving average errors, where the conditional mean has a state space representation. Having a moving average component, however, means that the errors in the measurement equation are no longer serially independent, and estimation becomes more difficult. We develop a posterior simulator that builds upon recent advances in precision-based algorithms for estimating these new models. In an empirical application involving US inflation we find that these moving average stochastic volatility models provide better in-sample fitness and out-of-sample forecast performance than the standard variants with only stochastic volatility.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:econom:v:176:y:2013:i:2:p:162-172
Journal Field
Econometrics
Author Count
1
Added to Database
2026-01-25