Large Bayesian VARs: A Flexible Kronecker Error Covariance Structure

A-Tier
Journal: Journal of Business & Economic Statistics
Year: 2020
Volume: 38
Issue: 1
Pages: 68-79

Score contribution per author:

4.036 = (α=2.02 / 1 authors) × 2.0x A-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We introduce a class of large Bayesian vector autoregressions (BVARs) that allows for non-Gaussian, heteroscedastic, and serially dependent innovations. To make estimation computationally tractable, we exploit a certain Kronecker structure of the likelihood implied by this class of models. We propose a unified approach for estimating these models using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. In an application that involves 20 macroeconomic variables, we find that these BVARs with more flexible covariance structures outperform the standard variant with independent, homoscedastic Gaussian innovations in both in-sample model-fit and out-of-sample forecast performance.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:taf:jnlbes:v:38:y:2020:i:1:p:68-79
Journal Field
Econometrics
Author Count
1
Added to Database
2026-01-25