An automated prior robustness analysis in Bayesian model comparison

B-Tier
Journal: Journal of Applied Econometrics
Year: 2022
Volume: 37
Issue: 3
Pages: 583-602

Authors (3)

Joshua C. C. Chan (Purdue University) Liana Jacobi (not in RePEc) Dan Zhu (not in RePEc)

Score contribution per author:

0.673 = (α=2.02 / 3 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

It is well‐known that the marginal likelihood, the gold standard for Bayesian model comparison, can be sensitive to prior hyperparameter choices. However, most models require computationally intense simulation‐based methods to evaluate the typically high‐dimensional integral of the marginal likelihood expression. Hence, despite the recognition that prior sensitivity analysis is important in this context, it is rarely done in practice. We develop efficient and feasible methods to compute the sensitivities of the marginal likelihood, obtained via two common simulation‐based methods, with respect to any prior hyperparameter, alongside the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimation algorithm. Our approach builds on automatic differentiation (AD), which has only recently been introduced to the more computationally intensive MCMC simulation setting. We illustrate our approach with two empirical applications in the context of widely used multivariate time series models.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:wly:japmet:v:37:y:2022:i:3:p:583-602
Journal Field
Econometrics
Author Count
3
Added to Database
2026-01-25