Debiased machine learning of conditional average treatment effects and other causal functions

Abstract

SummaryThis paper provides estimation and inference methods for the best linear predictor (approximation) of a structural function, such as conditional average structural and treatment effects, and structural derivatives, based on modern machine learning tools. We represent this structural function as a conditional expectation of an unbiased signal that depends on a nuisance parameter, which we estimate by modern machine learning techniques. We first adjust the signal to make it insensitive (Neyman-orthogonal) with respect to the first-stage regularisation bias. We then project the signal onto a set of basis functions, which grow with sample size, to get the best linear predictor of the structural function. We derive a complete set of results for estimation and simultaneous inference on all parameters of the best linear predictor, conducting inference by Gaussian bootstrap. When the structural function is smooth and the basis is sufficiently rich, our estimation and inference results automatically target this function. When basis functions are group indicators, the best linear predictor reduces to the group average treatment/structural effect, and our inference automatically targets these parameters. We demonstrate our method by estimating uniform confidence bands for the average price elasticity of gasoline demand conditional on income.