The Heterogeneous Effects of Global and National Business Cycles on Employment in US States and Metropolitan Areas

B-Tier
Journal: Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics
Year: 2021
Volume: 83
Issue: 2
Pages: 495-517

Authors (3)

Alexander Chudik (not in RePEc) Janet Koech (not in RePEc) Mark Wynne (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas)

Score contribution per author:

0.670 = (α=2.01 / 3 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

The growth of globalization in recent decades has increased the importance of external factors as drivers of the business cycle in many countries. Globalization affects countries not just at the macro level but at the level of states and metro areas as well. This paper isolates the relative importance of global, national and region‐specific shocks as drivers of the business cycle in individual US states and metro areas. We find about 2/3 and 1/2 of the employment fluctuations in US states and metro areas, respectively, are explained by the global and national shocks lumped together. The split between the importance of the global and national shocks is about 50:50, based on the standard identification scheme in the literature. Next, we document substantial regional heterogeneity in the sensitivity of states and metro areas to global shocks, and show that direct trade linkages are not the only channel through which the global business cycle impacts regional economies. In particular, indicators of size and industry composition dwarf the explanatory power of trade linkages in explaining the regional differences.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:bla:obuest:v:83:y:2021:i:2:p:495-517
Journal Field
General
Author Count
3
Added to Database
2026-01-25