Measuring bilateral spillover and testing contagion on sovereign bond markets in Europe

B-Tier
Journal: Journal of Banking & Finance
Year: 2014
Volume: 46
Issue: C
Pages: 151-165

Authors (2)

Claeys, Peter (not in RePEc) Vašíček, Bořek (European Commission)

Score contribution per author:

1.005 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

The global financial crisis rapidly spread across borders and financial markets, and also distressed EU bond markets. The crisis did not hit all markets in the same way. We measure the strength and direction of linkages between 16 EU sovereign bond markets using a factor-augmented version of the VAR model in Diebold and Yilmaz (2009). We then provide a novel test for contagion by applying the multivariate structural break test of Qu and Perron (2007) on this FAVAR detecting significant sudden changes in shock transmission. Results indicate substantial spillover, especially between EMU countries, with Belgium, Italy and Spain being key markets during the financial crisis. Contagion has been a rather rare phenomenon limited to a few well defined moments of uncertainty on financial assistance packages for Greece, Ireland and Portugal. Most of the frequent surges in market co-movement are driven by larger shocks rather than by contagion.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:jbfina:v:46:y:2014:i:c:p:151-165
Journal Field
Finance
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-25