Currency carry trade regimes: Beyond the Fama regression

B-Tier
Journal: Journal of International Money and Finance
Year: 2009
Volume: 28
Issue: 8
Pages: 1375-1389

Authors (3)

Clarida, Richard (Columbia University) Davis, Josh (not in RePEc) Pedersen, Niels (not in RePEc)

Score contribution per author:

0.673 = (α=2.02 / 3 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We show that carry trade strategies resemble FX option strategies that sell out of the money puts on high interest rate currencies. Both strategies collect premiums to generate persistent excess returns that unwind sharply when volatility increases. We also show that the widely documented negative slope coefficient in regressions of exchange rate depreciation on forward currency premiums is an artifact of the volatility regime. In high volatility regimes, the so-called Fama regression produces a positive coefficient greater than unity. We finally document the existence of an intuitive co-movement between currency risk premiums and yield curve risk factors.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:jimfin:v:28:y:2009:i:8:p:1375-1389
Journal Field
International
Author Count
3
Added to Database
2026-01-25