Are Tax Cuts Contractionary at the Zero Lower Bound? Evidence from a Century of Data

S-Tier
Journal: Journal of Political Economy
Year: 2025
Volume: 133
Issue: 2
Pages: 568 - 603

Authors (3)

James Cloyne (not in RePEc) Nicholas Dimsdale (not in RePEc) Patrick Hürtgen (Deutsche Bundesbank)

Score contribution per author:

2.681 = (α=2.01 / 3 authors) × 4.0x S-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

Popular New Keynesian macroeconomic models predict that cuts in various types of distortionary taxes are contractionary when monetary policy is constrained at the zero lower bound (ZLB). We turn to a long span of history in the United Kingdom to test this hypothesis. Using a new long-run dataset of narrative-identified tax changes from 1918 to 2020, we show that tax cuts are expansionary in both low-interest-rate environments and more normal times. We do not find evidence of a deflationary spiral at the ZLB. Tax cuts may therefore still be a useful tool to stimulate economic activity when monetary policy is constrained.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:ucp:jpolec:doi:10.1086/732890
Journal Field
General
Author Count
3
Added to Database
2026-01-25