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α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count
This paper investigates the consequences of the 2004 locust plague in Mali. We argue that in agricultural economies with a single harvest per year, this type of shock can affect households through two channels: first, a speculative/anticipatory effect that kicks in during the growing season, followed by a local crop failure effect after harvest. We document a substantial impact of the plague on crop price inflation before the harvest. Regarding health setbacks, children subject only to the speculative/anticipatory effect suffered as much as those exposed to the actual crop failure effect. The latter is more severe for children born in isolated areas.