How Do Firms Form Their Expectations? New Survey Evidence

S-Tier
Journal: American Economic Review
Year: 2018
Volume: 108
Issue: 9
Pages: 2671-2713

Score contribution per author:

2.681 = (α=2.01 / 3 authors) × 4.0x S-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We survey New Zealand firms and document novel facts about their macroeconomic beliefs. There is widespread dispersion in beliefs about past and future macroeconomic conditions, especially inflation. This dispersion in beliefs is consistent with firms' incentives to collect and process information. Using experimental methods, we find that firms update their beliefs in a Bayesian manner when presented with new information about the economy and that changes in their beliefs affect their decisions. Inflation is not generally perceived as being important to business decisions so firms devote few resources to collecting and processing information about inflation.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:aea:aecrev:v:108:y:2018:i:9:p:2671-2713
Journal Field
General
Author Count
3
Added to Database
2026-01-25