Forecasting the climate-conflict risk in Africa along climate-related scenarios and multiple socio-economic drivers

Abstract

This study investigates how climate change might impact economic development in the future through its effects on violence, addressing the gap in research on long-term conflict risk assessment. Using geocoded data (1°resolution) on climate and socio-economic indicators covering 1990–2050, we employ a forecasting recursive model to examine the probability and intensity of different types of conflict, under various socio-economic and climate scenarios. Our analysis reveals that climate change has both direct and indirect effects on violence, highlighting the key role of the agricultural channel, the spillover across neighbouring areas and the socio-economic context. These findings offer new insights into adaptation strategy and provide implications for the need to jointly account for the complex interactions between climate conditions, socio-economic factors, and conflict dynamics.