Interpreting bargaining strategies of developing countries in climate negotiations. A quantitative approach

Abstract

Despite the efforts made during the last climate conferences (COPs), countries participating in the negotiation process are still far from reaching an agreement on the implementation of a new Post-Kyoto climate regime. The growing role played by developing countries in negotiations is one of the main causes behind the deadlock. Further attention should therefore be paid to the composition of the alliances formed by developing countries in order to better understand the key structural features driving their bargaining positions. By applying a cluster analysis, this paper aims to investigate the role played by heterogeneity in specific characteristics of developing countries in explaining divergent costs and benefits associated with alternative climate negotiation outcomes. By clustering developing countries according to their economic, geographic, environmental, energy, and social characteristics, the paper presents some considerations on climate political economy strategies in these countries with respect to existing bargaining coalitions.