State dependence of monetary policy across business, credit and interest rate cycles

B-Tier
Journal: European Economic Review
Year: 2021
Volume: 140
Issue: C

Score contribution per author:

0.670 = (α=2.01 / 3 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We study how phases of the business, credit and interest rate cycles affect the transmission of monetary policy using state-dependent local projection methods and data from 18 advanced economies. We find that the impact of monetary policy shocks on output and other macroeconomic and financial variables is weaker during periods of economic downturns, low household debt, and high interest rates. The business cycle state dependence tends to dominate the other documented state dependencies. We build a small-scale theoretical model to rationalize these facts. The model points to the presence of collateral and debt-service constraints on household borrowing and refinancing as potential drivers of state dependence of monetary policy with respect to the business, credit, and interest rate cycles. Our findings bear significant implications for the transmission of monetary policy, and highlight potentially important features to be considered in models used to inform monetary policy decisions.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:eecrev:v:140:y:2021:i:c:s001429212100235x
Journal Field
General
Author Count
3
Added to Database
2026-01-24