Scouts versus Stats: the impact of Moneyball on the Major League Baseball draft

C-Tier
Journal: Applied Economics
Year: 2013
Volume: 45
Issue: 15
Pages: 1983-1990

Authors (2)

Tony Caporale (not in RePEc) Trevor C. Collier (University of Dayton)

Score contribution per author:

0.505 = (α=2.02 / 2 authors) × 0.5x C-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

Michael Lewis&#x2019; influential book <italic>Moneyball</italic> (2003) discusses several sources of inefficiency in the Major League Baseball (MLB) labour market; one of these being the failure of baseball scouts to place a draft premium on college players. We test this implication of the <italic>Moneyball</italic> thesis -- the superiority of college players -- by measuring the productivity of players who were drafted in the first round of five MLB drafts covering the years 1995--1999. Employing a variety of specifications, we find that the performance of college draft choices is no better than those of high school picks and argue that this is consistent with Hayek's (1944) work on the economics of information and his emphasis on the importance of localized knowledge. Additionally, we utilize data on the first three rounds of the MLB draft from 1965 to 2010 to test whether Lewis&#x2019; book had any impact on teams&#x2019; draft strategies. We find no significant structural change in the draft following the publication of <italic>Moneyball</italic>.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:taf:applec:45:y:2013:i:15:p:1983-1990
Journal Field
General
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-25