Score contribution per author:
α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count
We evaluate the role of US monetary policy in shaping inflation and economic activity by means of a medium-scale Bayesian VAR model, where the ZLB and the unconventional measures are addressed by using a shadow interest rate. The historical decomposition and a conditional forecast scenario show that the FED’s stance is in line with GDP and inflation dynamics. Moreover, core inflation will likely lie below its target in 2017.