Asymmetric Information and Sovereign Debt: Theory Meets Mexican Data

S-Tier
Journal: Journal of Political Economy
Year: 2022
Volume: 130
Issue: 8
Pages: 2055 - 2109

Authors (3)

Harold Cole (not in RePEc) Daniel Neuhann (not in RePEc) Guillermo Ordoñez (University of Pennsylvania)

Score contribution per author:

2.681 = (α=2.01 / 3 authors) × 4.0x S-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

Using bid-level data from discriminatory auctions for Mexican government bonds, we demonstrate that asymmetric information about default risk is a key friction in sovereign bond markets. We document that large bidders achieve higher bid-acceptance rates than other bidders despite paying no more for executed bids. We then propose a new model of primary markets in which investors may differ in wealth, risk aversion, market power, and information. Only asymmetric information can qualitatively account for our empirical finding, and asymmetric information about rare disasters can quantitatively match bidding and yield moments. Counterfactuals reveal substantial effects of asymmetric information on yields.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:ucp:jpolec:doi:10.1086/720139
Journal Field
General
Author Count
3
Added to Database
2026-01-25