What makes a currency procyclical? An empirical investigation

B-Tier
Journal: Journal of International Money and Finance
Year: 2015
Volume: 55
Issue: C
Pages: 240-259

Authors (2)

Cordella, Tito (not in RePEc) Gupta, Poonam (Reserve Bank of India)

Score contribution per author:

1.005 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

This paper looks at the correlation between the cyclical components of gross domestic product and the exchange rate and classifies countries' currencies as procyclical if they appreciate in good times, countercyclical if they appreciate in bad times, and acyclical otherwise. With this classification, the paper shows that: (i) the countries that are commodity exporters and experience procyclical capital flows tend to have procyclical currencies; (ii) countries with procyclical currencies tend to restrict their capital accounts, perhaps as an attempt to reduce the degree of procyclicality; (iii) countries with procyclical currencies pursue procyclical monetary policy; (iv) however, in the last decade, there is a disconnect between the cyclicality of currency and monetary policy; and (v) the disconnect may reflect a decline in the fear of floating, which can be partially attributed to an improvement in countries' net foreign asset positions.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:jimfin:v:55:y:2015:i:c:p:240-259
Journal Field
International
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-25