Can a Machine Correct Option Pricing Models?

A-Tier
Journal: Journal of Business & Economic Statistics
Year: 2023
Volume: 41
Issue: 3
Pages: 995-1009

Authors (4)

Caio Almeida (Fundação Getúlio Vargas (FGV)) Jianqing Fan (Princeton University) Gustavo Freire (not in RePEc) Francesca Tang (not in RePEc)

Score contribution per author:

1.005 = (α=2.01 / 4 authors) × 2.0x A-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We introduce a novel two-step approach to predict implied volatility surfaces. Given any fitted parametric option pricing model, we train a feedforward neural network on the model-implied pricing errors to correct for mispricing and boost performance. Using a large dataset of S&P 500 options, we test our nonparametric correction on several parametric models ranging from ad-hoc Black–Scholes to structural stochastic volatility models and demonstrate the boosted performance for each model. Out-of-sample prediction exercises in the cross-section and in the option panel show that machine-corrected models always outperform their respective original ones, often by a large extent. Our method is relatively indiscriminate, bringing pricing errors down to a similar magnitude regardless of the misspecification of the original parametric model. Even so, correcting models that are less misspecified usually leads to additional improvements in performance and also outperforms a neural network fitted directly to the implied volatility surface.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:taf:jnlbes:v:41:y:2023:i:3:p:995-1009
Journal Field
Econometrics
Author Count
4
Added to Database
2026-01-24