Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health Interventions Do Not: Evidence from the 1918 Flu

B-Tier
Journal: Journal of Economic History
Year: 2022
Volume: 82
Issue: 4
Pages: 917-957

Score contribution per author:

0.670 = (α=2.01 / 3 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We study the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on mortality and economic activity across U.S. cities during the 1918 Flu Pandemic. The combination of fast and stringent NPIs reduced peak mortality by 50 percent and cumulative excess mortality by 24 to 34 percent. However, while the pandemic itself was associated with short-run economic disruptions, we find that these disruptions were similar across cities with strict and lenient NPIs. NPIs also did not worsen medium-run economic outcomes. Our findings indicate that NPIs can reduce disease transmission without further depressing economic activity, a finding also reflected in discussions in contemporary newspapers.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:cup:jechis:v:82:y:2022:i:4:p:917-957_1
Journal Field
Economic History
Author Count
3
Added to Database
2026-01-25