New dawn fades: Trade, labour and the Brexit exchange rate depreciation

A-Tier
Journal: Journal of International Economics
Year: 2024
Volume: 152
Issue: C

Authors (3)

Costa, Rui (not in RePEc) Dhingra, Swati (not in RePEc) Machin, Stephen (London School of Economics (LS...)

Score contribution per author:

1.341 = (α=2.01 / 3 authors) × 2.0x A-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

This paper studies consequences of the large exchange rate depreciation occurring when the UK electorate unexpectedly voted to leave the European Union. Sterling plummeted, recording the biggest one-day depreciation of any of the world's four major currencies since Bretton Woods. The prospect of Brexit happening generated sizable differences in how much sterling depreciated against different currencies. Coupled with pre-referendum cross-country trade patterns, this generated variations in exchange rates facing businesses in different industries. The paper offers evidence of a cost shock from the prices of intermediate imports rising by more in higher depreciation industries, but with no revenue offset from exports. Workers were impacted by these increased cost pressures, not in terms of job loss but through relative real wage declines in higher depreciation, larger cost shock industries. This resulted in an aggregate fall in real wage growth of 3 to 3.6% cumulatively over the three years after the referendum.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:inecon:v:152:y:2024:i:c:s002219962400120x
Journal Field
International
Author Count
3
Added to Database
2026-01-25