Does Consumption Respond to Transitory Shocks? Reconciling Natural Experiments and Semistructural Methods

A-Tier
Journal: American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics
Year: 2022
Volume: 14
Issue: 2
Pages: 96-122

Score contribution per author:

4.036 = (α=2.02 / 1 authors) × 2.0x A-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

Studies based on natural experiments find that consumption responds strongly and significantly to a transitory variation in income, while semistructural estimations find no pass-through of transitory shocks to consumption. I develop a more robust semistructural estimator that relaxes the assumption that log consumption is a random walk. The robust pass-through estimate is significant and large, implying a yearly marginal propensity to consume of 0.32, close to the natural experiment findings. The robust estimator performs well in numerical simulations of a life cycle model, while nonrobust estimators do not. The difference between the two in the simulations is similar to their difference in the survey data.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:aea:aejmac:v:14:y:2022:i:2:p:96-122
Journal Field
Macro
Author Count
1
Added to Database
2026-01-25