On the Factor Structure of Bond Returns

S-Tier
Journal: Econometrica
Year: 2022
Volume: 90
Issue: 1
Pages: 295-314

Authors (2)

Score contribution per author:

4.022 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 4.0x S-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We demonstrate that characterizing the minimal dimension of the term structure of interest rates is more challenging than currently appreciated. The highly structured polynomial patterns of the factor loadings, which are widely reported and discussed in the literature, reflect local correlations of smooth curves across maturities. We derive analytical expressions for the loadings of cross‐sectionally dependent processes that tend to favor a much lower dimension than the true dimension of the underlying factor space. Numerical examples illustrate the significant economic costs of erroneously committing to a parsimoniously parameterized factor space that is informed by standard metrics of goodness‐of‐fit. Our results apply to other assets with a finite maturity structure.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:wly:emetrp:v:90:y:2022:i:1:p:295-314
Journal Field
General
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-25