Revisions to PCE Inflation Measures: Implications for Monetary Policy

B-Tier
Journal: International Journal of Central Banking
Year: 2019
Volume: 15
Issue: 4
Pages: 241-265

Score contribution per author:

2.018 = (α=2.02 / 1 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

This paper examines the characteristics of the revisions to the inflation rate as measured by the personal consumption expenditures price index both including and excluding food and energy prices. These data series play a major role in the Federal Reserve's analysis of inflation. We examine the magnitude and patterns of revisions to both PCE inflation rates. We can forecast data revisions in real time from the initial release to the annual revision released in the following year. Policymakers should account for this predictability in setting monetary policy.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:ijc:ijcjou:y:2019:q:4:a:7
Journal Field
Macro
Author Count
1
Added to Database
2026-01-25