Forecasting in a large macroeconomic system

C-Tier
Journal: Applied Economics
Year: 2000
Volume: 32
Issue: 13
Pages: 1711-1718

Authors (3)

Harvey Cutler (not in RePEc) Stephen Davies (not in RePEc) Martin Schmidt (College of William)

Score contribution per author:

0.335 = (α=2.01 / 3 authors) × 0.5x C-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

This paper examines the efficiency gains yielded from estimating multiple equation cointegrated systems as compared to their single equation counterparts. In particular, this paper is concerned with the ability of utilizing the cointegrating information to improve forecasting performance. Recently an inability to improve forecasts of real income once money demand error correction terms were introduced has been used to argue that the M2 relationship had broken down during the early 1990s. However, the results suggest that once the underlying responses of variables are more closely investigated, the behaviour of M2 has remained stable.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:taf:applec:v:32:y:2000:i:13:p:1711-1718
Journal Field
General
Author Count
3
Added to Database
2026-01-25