The Micro-Origins of Business Cycles: Evidence from German Metropolitan Areas

A-Tier
Journal: Review of Economics and Statistics
Year: 2023
Volume: 105
Issue: 1
Pages: 70-85

Authors (2)

Federica Daniele (Banca d'Italia) Heiko Stuber (not in RePEc)

Score contribution per author:

2.018 = (α=2.02 / 2 authors) × 2.0x A-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

How large is volatility due to large firms? We answer this question through both reduced-form analysis and a calibration exercise. First, we exploit time and spatial variation across German cities and show that higher concentration is associated with more persistent local business cycles, and local concentration Granger causes local employment volatility. From a business cycle perspective, we find evidence in favor of granularity-driven recessions only. Next, we calibrate a structural model along the lines of Carvalho and Grassi (2019) and find that the more fat-tailed productivity distribution in bigger cities crucially depends also on the higher probability that firms will grow.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:tpr:restat:v:105:y:2023:i:1:p:70-85
Journal Field
General
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-25