Learning to forecast the exchange rate: Two competing approaches

B-Tier
Journal: Journal of International Money and Finance
Year: 2013
Volume: 32
Issue: C
Pages: 42-76

Authors (2)

Score contribution per author:

1.005 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

This paper compares two competing approaches to model foreign exchange market participants' behavior: statistical learning and fitness learning. These learning mechanisms are applied to a set of predictors: chartist and fundamentalist rules. We examine which of the learning approaches is best in terms of replicating the exchange rate dynamics within the framework of a standard asset pricing model. We find that both learning methods reveal the fundamental value of the exchange rate in the equilibrium but only fitness learning creates the disconnection phenomenon and only statistical learning replicates volatility clustering. None of the mechanisms is able to produce a unit root process but both of them generate non-normally distributed returns.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:jimfin:v:32:y:2013:i:c:p:42-76
Journal Field
International
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-25