Score contribution per author:
α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count
Credit markets are an important link in the propagation of economic uncertainty. We study the nexus between the two using a nonlinear VAR where uncertainty is captured by the volatility of the economy’s structural shocks and its transmission mechanism is allowed to change in periods of financial distress. We find that, in the USA, uncertainty shocks have recessionary effects at all times, but their impact on output is six times larger when the economy is going through a financial crisis. Uncertainty accounts for one percentage point of the contraction in industrial production observed in the Great Recession.