Local Instruments, Global Extrapolation: External Validity of the Labor Supply-Fertility Local Average Treatment Effect

A-Tier
Journal: Journal of Labor Economics
Year: 2017
Volume: 35
Issue: S1
Pages: S99 - S147

Authors (4)

Score contribution per author:

1.005 = (α=2.01 / 4 authors) × 2.0x A-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We investigate the external validity of local average treatment effects (LATEs), specifically Angrist and Evans's use of same sex of the two first children as an instrumental variable for the effect of fertility on labor supply. We estimate their specification in 139 country-year censuses using Integrated Public Use Microdata Sample-International data. We compare each country-year's actual LATE to the extrapolated LATE from other country-years. We find that, with a sufficiently large reference sample, we extrapolate the treatment effect reasonably well, but the degree of accuracy depends on the extent of covariate similarity between the target and reference settings.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:ucp:jlabec:doi:10.1086/691280
Journal Field
Labor
Author Count
4
Added to Database
2026-01-25