Betting on momentum in contests

C-Tier
Journal: Economic Inquiry
Year: 2025
Volume: 63
Issue: 4
Pages: 1066-1089

Authors (4)

Marius Ötting (not in RePEc) Christian Deutscher (not in RePEc) Carl Singleton (University of Stirling) Luca De Angelis (not in RePEc)

Score contribution per author:

0.251 = (α=2.01 / 4 authors) × 0.5x C-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

With unprecedented access to volumes and prices of state‐contingent claims by a major bookmaker, second‐by‐second in‐play football betting markets, we study what happens after major breaking news. We focus on what might look like a shift in momentum to a bettor: equalizing goals. Immediately after this news breaks, the volume of claims sold on the match outcomes increases and is substantially biased toward the equalizing team. But there is no evidence that the prices or values of these claims are functions of whichever team scored last. These findings illustrate the value of integrating high‐frequency price and quantity data to evaluate the efficiency and profitability of betting markets.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:bla:ecinqu:v:63:y:2025:i:4:p:1066-1089
Journal Field
General
Author Count
4
Added to Database
2026-01-25