Sovereign Debt Ratchets and Welfare Destruction

S-Tier
Journal: Journal of Political Economy
Year: 2023
Volume: 131
Issue: 10
Pages: 2825 - 2892

Authors (3)

Peter DeMarzo (not in RePEc) Zhiguo He (Stanford University) Fabrice Tourre (not in RePEc)

Score contribution per author:

2.681 = (α=2.01 / 3 authors) × 4.0x S-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We study an impatient, risk-neutral government that cannot commit to a particular debt path, financed by competitive lenders. In equilibrium, debt adjusts slowly toward a debt-to-income target, exacerbating booms and busts. Strikingly, gains from trade dissipate when trading is continuous, leaving the government no better off than in financial autarky, owing to a sovereign “debt ratchet effect.” Moreover, citizens who are more patient than their government are strictly harmed. We characterize equilibrium debt dynamics, ergodics, and comparative statics when income follows a geometric Brownian motion and analyze devices that allow the sovereign to recapture gains from trade.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:ucp:jpolec:doi:10.1086/724571
Journal Field
General
Author Count
3
Added to Database
2026-01-25